By Bill Adams, MBA, CCIM, ALC, CRB, Founder, Adams Realtors
Welcome to the October 2022 Intown Atlanta Market Report. I assume that most of us agree that the earth is round. A more relevant question for us is “the real estate market flat?” Over the last several months, we have experienced a softening in the residential market. This month, I am going to look back over the last six months to see if I can spot a weakness in the market. For October, the overall market has an Average Sales Price (ASP) of $682,074. This is an increase of 14% over the October 2021 Average Sales Price and a 1.97% increase over last month’s ASP. The typical Intown Atlanta home was on the market only 27 days, one day more than in September and 5 days less than the October 2021 number. Over the 12 months ending September 30th, 2,197 homes sold, a decrease of 15% over the last year.
Let’s look at the numbers from May to October 2022 when interest rates started to ratchet up.
|Month / Year||Number of Days on Market||Average Sales Price||Number of Units Sold|
The Intown Atlanta single family residential market is beginning to feel the effects of higher home mortgage interest rates. In the chart above, the Average Sales Price increased by about 5% over the last six months, an annualized 10% rate of appreciation. As mentioned above, the 12-month rate of ASP appreciation is 14%. I had expected October’s ASP to be much like the previous three-month period that produced a flattening rate of appreciation. Instead, October’s Average Sales Price jumped by 2% over September’s number, an annualized rate of 24%. There still appears to be competition amongst buyers driving up home prices. The Average Days on the Market, another measure of demand, held steady over the last 6 months between 25 and 27 days. Last year, in a much lower interest rate environment, the average was 32 days. Where the effect of higher interest rates shows up is in the Number of Units Sold. Over the last six months, transactions have fallen by about 10%. To me this last number reflects potential buyers that have been priced out of the market or those that prefer to stay on the sidelines waiting for the rates to fall. It could also reflect potential sellers that are postponing putting their homes on the market because of higher rates. It appears that we are in a bifurcated market. Demand is still causing prices to increase. Homes are still selling quickly, and transactions are falling. The latter point probably reflects both a demand and supply problem. Please let me know if you have any questions or comments and feel free to contact me at email@example.com.